Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. You have to take the lesser of two evils. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Your email address will not be published. "If. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I think its very political right now, honestly. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. But thats not the picture I look at. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. Please read our comments policy before commenting. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Were a service industry-oriented area. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. And we just want that to continue. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. SACRAMENTO . While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. By Cara Ding. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. I dont listen to the news. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Republican Gov. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. The morale of the people up there is bad. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. Pre-performance Lobby events. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . I dont watch TV. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. 0:00 0:00. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Two states have announced recounts. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. About The Author. The counties are also mostly small and rural. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. He didnt vote in 2016 either. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. I am under that impression. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. We have become so divided. We were as far down to five cooks last year. Blaine County. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. 2016 Trump. I believe in a time cycle. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. This claim is basically absurd. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said.
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